South Sudan election test: Is Kiir’s caretaker govt ready for fair polls?

South Sudan has dismantled some legal obstacles hindering its inaugural national elections, yet President Salva Kiir's decision to disband the transitional government and parliament has shifted focus from the feasibility of holding a vote to whether the country can establish conditions for a genuinely competitive contest. On September 22, 2026, Kiir disbanded the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity and appointed a caretaker administration three months prior to the scheduled December 22, 2026 elections.

The amendments to the National Elections Act, which eliminated prerequisites like a permanent constitution and national census, allow Kiir to retain presidential authority throughout the electoral period until a successor is sworn in. Government officials have hailed the amendments as a "major milestone" in election preparations.

However, these changes have concentrated political power around the presidency at a time when electoral institutions should operate autonomously. The dissolution effectively terminates the power-sharing agreement from the 2018 peace deal, which brought Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar together. Kiir remains in office throughout the election period, raising concerns about the fairness of the contest.

The main opposition alliance has criticized these changes, questioning whether the election can be deemed fully competitive when the incumbent president retains executive authority while Machar remains under house arrest and faces charges. The East African reports that opposition figures describe the December election as likely to be a "sham" due to the exclusion of several parties from the preparations.

The dispute is crucial as an election's credibility depends not only on the casting of ballots but also on the acceptance of the rules governing the contest by significant political forces. While the dissolution may expedite the electoral timetable by bypassing unresolved constitutional and political issues, it also raises questions about whether these matters are being addressed through the electoral process rather than beforehand.

South Sudan has postponed elections twice since gaining independence in 2011, and the December vote would be the country's first national election since independence. Progress has been made, with political parties registered and electoral authorities preparing for voter registration and other stages. However, institutional uncertainty persists, as exemplified by Kiir's recent replacement of the National Elections Commission chairman, prompting concerns about the independence and continuity of the electoral body.

Legal and political objections have also emerged, with opposition presidential aspirant Kornelio Kon Ngu challenging the constitutionality of the dissolution of the transitional government. The wider East African experience warns of the challenges faced when transitioning from peace-based transitional systems to electoral politics.

Tanzania's 2025 presidential election, boycotted by the main opposition party and marred by violence, serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the difference between conducting elections and deepening democratic competition. Uganda's 2026 presidential election, where incumbent President Yoweri Museveni secured over 70% of the vote, also illustrates the complexities of electoral processes.