Russia is unlikely to break through in Ukraine, but risks to NATO are rising, Western intel warns
Danish intelligence warned of rising hybrid attacks and even the possibility, though less likely, of Russian military action against the alliance.
Danish intelligence has forecast that Russia is unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough in its ongoing war against Ukraine over the next six months. However, the assessment from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia poses an increasing threat to NATO in the coming months. The report, released this week, blames Russia's heavy battlefield losses, economic strain from sanctions, and high military spending for the lack of territorial gains.
The intelligence agency also highlights a surge in hybrid activities, such as drone incursions, sabotage, and other malign actions across Europe, which Western officials attribute to Russia. While Moscow has denied involvement, NATO officials argue that these actions aim to undermine European support for Ukraine and test NATO's resolve.
The assessment indicates that Russia may intensify its hybrid warfare by launching more frequent attacks against Western nations and NATO, potentially causing greater consequences than in the past. Furthermore, there is a low but growing risk of a limited military strike against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia, aimed at weakening the alliance and diverting resources away from Ukraine.
While an outright invasion of NATO territory remains highly unlikely, Denmark's intelligence service cautions against complacency. The assessment comes as European leaders warn that Russia's shadow war could escalate, though no outright conventional war like the one Russia is waging in Ukraine is being ruled out.
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