Russia cuts natural gas output, export forecasts
Russia's economy ministry expects the country to produce and export less natural gas this year than previously forecast, according to a draft government document seen by Reuters, as Europe prepar...
Russia's economy ministry anticipates the country will produce and export fewer natural gas resources this year than previously projected, according to a draft government document obtained by Reuters. The reduction in exports comes as Europe concludes its remaining Russian gas purchases amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Russia had lowered its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised its export outlook for the current year and next due to the war.
The revised forecasts will be incorporated into the federal budget update through 2029. The changes in natural gas production and export forecasts are influenced by the severed economic and political ties with the West following the Ukraine war and the European Union's decision to cease all Russian gas imports starting next year.
According to the draft forecast, Russia's natural gas production this year will reach 683.1 billion cubic meters, which is 5.3 billion cubic meters lower than the May projection but still surpasses the 662.7 billion cubic meters produced in 2025.
The Kremlin claims that Europe is harming itself by purchasing gas at a higher price on the spot market instead of opting for cheaper Russian supplies. Moscow remains prepared to resume gas deliveries to Europe, including through the intact leg of the Nord Stream undersea pipelines following the September 2022 explosions. Russia's seaborne liquefied natural gas exports are projected to increase to 35 million tonnes this year from 30.3 million tonnes in 2025, although this remains 5.3 million tonnes below the initial expectation.
The document indicates that Russia's LNG exports are expected to continue growing in the upcoming years, albeit at a slower rate than previously predicted. Last year, Russia's gas exports to Europe decreased by 44% to just 18 billion cubic meters, the lowest level since the mid-1970s due to the closure of the Ukrainian transit route. Pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at around 180 billion cubic meters per year in 2018-2019.
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