Russia could launch limited attacks on NATO in coming months, escalating hybrid warfare without being ready for full-scale conflict, Denmark warns

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service warns that Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid warfare against NATO in the coming months, without being prepared for a full-scale conflict. The assessment, published on September 24, highlights a growing willingness by Russia to take risks against European and NATO nations. While Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine persists, DDIS anticipates more frequent sabotage, cyberattacks, and limited military strikes against NATO countries adjacent to Russia.

These operations may feature destructive cyberattacks disrupting critical societal functions, as well as sabotage attacks carrying a high risk of casualties. Germany's recent drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport serves as an example of Russia's growing willingness to conduct such operations. DDIS also cites a low but increasing risk of Russia carrying out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, possibly using Ukrainian-made drones in a false-flag operation or deploying a small number of troops without national insignia.

These attacks aim to divert European resources from Ukraine and create divisions within NATO, should Moscow believe that the alliance would struggle to respond collectively. DDIS emphasizes that Russia would likely avoid triggering a full NATO response, but cautions that uncertainty exists regarding the threshold that would prompt such a reaction.

Despite the heightened risk, DDIS does not believe Russia is preparing to invade NATO countries, considering a full-scale invasion highly unlikely. However, the agency stresses that Russia's war efforts in Ukraine are under significant pressure, with Ukraine's sustained long-range strikes causing escalating damage in Russia and heavy losses for Russia's forces.