Qatar digital tool adoption helps mitigate supply chain risks during prolonged crises

Dr Iman Adeinat, a logistics and supply chain expert at Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar (CMU-Q), highlighted the vital role of digital analytics and predictive AI tools in managing supply chain risks during prolonged crises. These advanced tools provide real-time visibility, demand-sensing, and scenario simulation across national industries, enabling operators to monitor short transit windows, adjust safety stock levels, and simulate prolonged closures before committing capital.

The utilization of these tools has yielded three key benefits: firstly, by tracking maritime analytics, operators can monitor vessel movements, narrow transit windows, and return to closure with near real-time precision; secondly, demand-sensing and inventory models help determine the optimal safety stock levels and their locations, which is crucial when disruptions extend from weeks to months and overland routes face capacity limitations; and thirdly, digital twins allow companies to stress-test potential closures for extended periods, such as six or twelve months, before making significant capital investments.

Qatar has already implemented this approach in its food-security early-warning system. The next step is to extend this methodology to industrial inputs, spare parts, and logistics capacity through shared national platforms. However, it is essential to acknowledge that during conflict zones, ships often turn off their transponders, requiring models to account for missing data to maintain accurate predictions.

Qatari businesses have adapted to regional volatility by shifting away from just-in-time inventory models towards maintaining larger buffer stocks. This approach has proven effective on the retail and food side, with importers adopting multiple routes, including overland through Saudi Arabia, transshipment through the Red Sea, and air freight for perishable and valuable items, all coordinated through Hassad Food and the relevant ministries.

Inventory policies have transitioned from just-in-time to deliberately larger buffers, accepting higher carrying costs for enhanced availability.

To further bolster long-term economic resilience, Dr Adeinat suggested implementing supply chain security regulations, including mandated inventory buffers and mandatory stress testing akin to banking solvency standards. Key policy measures would encompass formalizing treaty-level land corridors through Saudi Arabia, expanding national reserves for critical spare parts and industrial inputs, establishing a national supply-chain resilience office, creating regional insurance backstops, and accelerating GCC rail projects.