Oil: Geopolitics tighten physical markets – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts highlight the intensifying geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran as they tighten oil markets in physical terms. Record premiums at Cushing point to a robust demand for immediate supply. While Saudi Arabia's partial pipeline restart has provided some limited relief, Brent crude oil prices have surged to approximately USD103.

The link between oil prices and broader macro-market movements is becoming increasingly evident, as evidenced by a five-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5%, its highest level in nearly two decades. The US-Iran conflict continues to weigh on markets, with further attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening pressure on the physical oil markets.

Oil traders are paying record premiums to secure immediate supply at Cushing, underscoring the pronounced tightness in physical markets. Saudi Arabia's pipeline restoration offers some offset, but Brent crude oil prices remain elevated at USD103, amidst fresh attacks and market tightness. Additionally, President Trump has indicated his advisors may support a ban on US diesel exports, citing the wars in Iran and Ukraine as factors behind record diesel prices, though the administration's stance on the ban remains uncertain.