Klima und Konjunktur: Allianz: Hitze senkt Europas Wirtschaftsleistung

This summer's heatwave has reduced the European economy's performance by €113 billion for the current year, according to Allianz estimates. Germany, with estimated losses of €25 billion, ranks second behind Italy's €28 billion, the Munich DAX group revealed. France follows with an estimated GDP reduction of €20 billion. Extreme heat leads to less work, fewer economic losses caused by lower productivity and longer breaks or absences.

Overall, the continent-wide losses are expected to amount to just under half of one percent of the year's economic output. These findings form the basis of Allianz's inaugural "Climate Risk Tracker," which combines weather and damage data with economic modeling. Besides heat-induced economic slowdown, Germany also faced €50 billion in weather and natural disaster damages over the past five years, double the average for the 2000-2019 period.

Globally, natural disaster damages have risen by only about 54 percent compared to the 2000-2019 baseline. Germany is particularly vulnerable to climate-related damages, according to Allianz Chief Frank Sommerfeld, largely due to Europe's northern latitude and faster warming compared to other continents. Norway tops the list with an average temperature 3.7 degrees higher than the 1950-1970 average.

While natural catastrophes play a role, densely populated, economically advanced countries also experience higher damage due to more factories, homes, cars, and other human-made assets. Additionally, the upcoming year's performance is uncertain due to the "El Niño" phenomenon, which can influence weather worldwide, including impacts on the Indian subcontinent, southern Africa, and Australia.

If "El Niño" leads to another unusually warm year, global economic output could see a loss of €392 billion in 2027, primarily affecting China.