How the Tigray war could spill across the Horn of Africa
Fighting has resumed in Ethiopia's Tigray region. In an interview with DW, Horn of Africa expert Martin Plaut warns of possible regional spillover.
The Tigray conflict has reignited in Ethiopia, raising concerns that it could spread beyond the country's borders into the Horn of Africa. Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23, leading to fighting in neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. This escalation threatens the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous Tigray war.
Martin Plaut, a British Horn of Africa expert, warns that the conflict could spill over into the region, potentially involving Eritrea and Sudan. The African Union has expressed deep concern and called for an immediate end to actions that could escalate tensions. The alliance of Ethiopian armed groups opposing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government could complicate the situation, as they have different political objectives and territorial interests.
Fighting in Afar, a key transport corridor, could threaten Ethiopia's vital economic lifeline. Eritrea's involvement is uncertain, but Ethiopia accuses it of supporting opposition groups, while Eritrea denies the allegations. Sudan's ongoing civil war, involving the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, has drawn in regional powers.
Eritrea, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are alleged to be supporting different sides, potentially exacerbating tensions. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have interests across the Horn of Africa, but their goals diverge, especially over Sudan. While a regional war is not inevitable, the interconnected nature of conflicts suggests the possibility of a generalized conflict in the region, particularly affecting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping chokepoint.
Written by urgent.news from DW English (Top Stories)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
