How much is Kalshi really worth? A detailed report says as much as $42 billion—if everything goes right

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have recently seen a surge in funding, with Kalshi raising $1 billion in May for a $22 billion valuation. However, the company's valuation faces uncertainty due to a potential Supreme Court case questioning its valuation. Analyst Franco Granda of PitchBook has published a 46-page report that aims to determine Kalshi's true worth.

Granda concludes that Kalshi should be valued at $30.4 billion in 2028, with a bear case scenario valuation of $22.8 billion and a bullish scenario valuation of $42.1 billion. Kalshi's revenue is expected to reach $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted earnings of $3.7 billion. The company currently enjoys favorable tax treatment and can offer its services to customers as young as 18, but faces potential legal risks due to sports betting regulations.

If the Supreme Court rules against Kalshi, it could result in a $642 million reduction in 2026 fees and $1.4 billion in 2030 fees. However, Granda believes the company could adapt by adopting a state licensing model. Kalshi also has promising opportunities in non-sports wagers, such as perpetual futures, which could offset losses in sports-related revenue.