Hasta dónde llegará el bono de EEUU y cuánto drena a la Bolsa europea

The US debt issue and its impact on the European stock market are closely intertwined, with current market dynamics heavily influenced by both economic growth and oil prices. A rapid escalation in the cost of US 10-year bonds above the 5% threshold has sparked debate within financial markets. Some attribute this increase to robust economic activity and significant investment in the US, while others attribute it primarily to the rising price of oil due to the conflict in Iran.

Both factors contribute to inflationary pressures, which in turn force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates further. However, in the short term, even an ardent supporter of Donald Trump's economic policies, such as David Zervos from Jefferies, acknowledges that Iran plays a more significant role in driving up debt costs.

Movements in the 10-year bond price seem closely linked to oil prices. Steven Blitz from TS Lombard argues that in the short term, oil movements dictate interest rates; for every dollar increase in the WTI barrel price (currently at $94), the cost of the US 10-year bond rises by 2 basis points. He forecasts that the debt's profitability could reach 6% (currently at 5.1%) if oil prices reach $140 (and Brent, which typically trades at a higher price, reaches $150).

Traditionally, a bond price above 5% begins to impact the stock market, raising the cost of financing for companies and the discount rate applied to their future benefits. This effect may also extend to European stock markets, as UBS estimates a 1% increase in European debt for every 10 basis points rise in US debt. This relationship is particularly pronounced during rapid bond rate increases.

Beyond 4.5%, the level itself is benign; rather, it's the swift weekly increase that causes damage. Consequently, combining these formulas, every $1 increase in the WTI barrel price drains 0.2% from the Euro Stoxx stock index. Therefore, with a Brent price of $150 and a 6% debt burden, European stock markets would be drained by 9%.