Goldman Sachs said to have earned over $200M in fees this year from Situational Awareness

Goldman Sachs has maintained a Sell rating for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) following the company's disappointing Phase 2 trial results for remlifanserin in treating Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. The stock is currently trading at $22.77 with a market capitalization of $3.92 billion, above the analyst's target but below the high-end estimate of $49.

In the Phase 2 study, the 5-HT2A inverse agonist failed to meet its primary endpoint of SAPS-H&D at 6 weeks, with a modest effect size of 0.26 and a p-value of 0.0603. Despite this setback, Acadia plans to proceed with its Phase 3 program, capitalizing on the nominal significance of secondary endpoints like the clinical global impression-severity and the exploratory endpoint of neuropsychiatric inventory clinician rating scale.

The company emphasized a favorable safety profile, noting no evidence of QT prolongation or adverse effects on cognition or motor function. Acadia also adjusted its Phase 3 trial by excluding the 30mg dosage arm due to absent efficacy in the Phase 2 results, potentially enriching the sample for patients with modestly severe psychosis.

Out of 10 analysts, 10 have raised their earnings estimates for the upcoming period, and InvestingPro data suggests the stock is undervalued at current levels. Although Goldman remains bearish, Academic's financial health score is robust, and further details can be found in InvestingPro's Pro Research Report. Acadia expects peak sales of around $4 billion across both Alzheimer’s disease psychosis and Lewy body dementia psychosis, while Visible Alpha's consensus stands at approximately $2 billion. Detailed Phase 2 data will be unveiled at CTAD from November 16-19.