Europe gas off multi-week lows as Middle East peace talks hit impasse

European and British wholesale natural gas futures rebounded on Thursday, climbing 1.6% each. The benchmark Dutch front-month TTF contract surged to 74.50 euros per MWh, reversing its recent near three-week low. In the United Kingdom, the NBP wholesale gas contract mirrored the continental gain, reaching 185.85 pence per therm. Optimism over potential U.S.-Iran talks faded when President Donald Trump labeled Iran a regional bully and warned of annihilating the Islamic Republic in a UN speech if hostilities escalated.

Iran's military leadership and President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected the threats, vowing readiness to retaliate and refusing to yield to naval blockades. The escalating diplomatic deadlock has nullified hopes that a swift peace deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing delays for Qatari and Persian Gulf LNG cargoes destined for European import terminals.

Adding to the geopolitical tensions, physical supply fundamentals in continental storage caverns continue to support winter energy demand. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), EU underground gas storage was at 70% of capacity, a level 12 percentage points lower than the same period in 2025. Despite ongoing injections, the storage deficit persists, reinforcing the European Central Bank's warning that wholesale energy volatility poses an ongoing risk to consumer inflation as the heating season approaches.