Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) remains soft as front-end spreads widen and European Union (EU) concerns persist over a possible US diesel export ban, despite official denials.
Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the Euro (EUR) is experiencing a decline, nearing support levels against the US Dollar (USD). Despite official denials, EU concerns persist over a potential US diesel export ban. While sentiment data have diverged from German GDP since 2024, improving IFO readings align better with stronger growth trends.
Technically, EUR/USD is in a bearish trend, with losses extending and support expected around 1.1325/50. The EUR retains a soft tone, reflecting widening front-end spreads and ongoing EU concerns about the impact of the hypothetical diesel ban. Germany's IFO Survey improved slightly in September, with the Business Climate Index at 89.9 and expectations at 90.4.
However, sentiment data has diverged from German GDP since 2024, but the improved sentiment aligns somewhat better with the economy's firming growth. Expect a further weakening of the EUR, nearing the low levels seen in mid-year, potentially attracting "value" buyers in the 1.1325/50 range.
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