EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 180.00, bearish bias persists below 100-day SMA

The EUR/JPY currency pair is trading near 179.85 at the start of European trading on Thursday. Japanese authorities' intervention risks offer support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) versus the Euro (EUR). Traders remain vigilant for potential currency intervention, especially after a recent reported rate check. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury Partners Ltd., notes that FX intervention is a blunt tool to support currencies and may struggle to halt the yen's sell-off without aggressive monetary policy response.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rates by 25 basis points last week, but Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments did not meet hawkish market expectations. Rabobank analysts suggest the strengthening strategic ties between the US and Japan are influencing financial markets, as evidenced by recent meetings between US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi.

The pair remains in negative territory, under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on daily charts, with a bearish near-term bias indicated by its position below the 20-period Bollinger middle band and the 100-day SMA of 184.05. The 180.00 psychological level and the Bollinger middle band at 180.70 serve as key resistance levels, with the 100-day SMA at 184.05 marking a significant upward target.

On the downside, the September 17 low of 178.48 and the September 14 low of 177.45 are the initial support levels, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 175.91, which could act as a deeper support level if breached.