Economic activity records biggest monthly fall since pandemic
Economic activity plunged 2.9% in July from previous month, biggest fall since pandemic; Down 1.4% year-on-year, reports INDEC. Leer más
In July, Argentina's economic activity experienced its largest monthly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, contracting by 2.9 percent from the previous month, according to official data. The National Statistics Bureau's INDEC indicated that Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator, EMAE, declined by 1.4 percent compared to July 2025.
The EMAE has fluctuated between increases and decreases in recent months, with growth observed in four out of the seven months this year and declines in three. However, seven out of the 15 sectors that make up the EMAE saw growth in July, notably fisheries soaring by an astonishing 424.5 percent year-on-year, and mining and quarrying up by 8.4 percent.
Agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry also increased by 0.7 percent, collectively contributing to a full percentage point of the year-on-year change in the EMAE. Conversely, eight sectors registered declines compared to the same period in 2025, with wholesale and retail trade and repairs leading the way, falling by 5.1 percent, followed by manufacturing, which dropped by 4.6 percent.
These two sectors were primarily responsible for the 1.3 percentage point reduction in the EMAE year-on-year. Facundo Beltramone, an economist from the Fundación Libertad think tank, commented that the official data suggests a marginal sign of weakness. On a seasonally adjusted basis, manufacturing output decreased by 5 percent, construction fell by 4.6 percent, and mining output declined by 0.9 percent in comparison to June.
Foreign trade also mirrored these trends, with exports dropping by 4.9 percent and imports falling by 4.5 percent from the previous month. Overall, these indicators suggest a weak month for economic activity in Argentina. However, Beltramone noted that these figures should be evaluated within a trajectory characterized by significant volatility.
The seasonally adjusted EMAE rose by 0.4 percent in January, fell by 2.6 percent in February, rebounded by 3.5 percent in March, dropped again by 1.5 percent in April, and increased by 0.8 percent in June. The economy in 2026 seems to be following a sawtooth pattern, alternating between monthly corrections and recoveries. In contrast to the observed economic slowdown, Argentina's government had projected a GDP expansion of 4.5 percent for the month.
Experts surveyed by the Central Bank's REM market expectations survey forecasted growth of 2.1 percent this year, followed by 2.9 percent in the next year and 3 percent in 2028.
Written by urgent.news from Buenos Aires Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
