Each rate rise locking aspiring homebuyers out for a decade, study finds

Research indicates that each interest rate rise in Australia can lead to a significant reduction in home purchases, potentially locking aspiring homebuyers out of owning a home for a decade or more. According to a model by James Graham, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney, a typical 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates can cause a 5% drop in home purchases immediately after the rate change.

This drop in home purchases results in a decline in the home ownership rate of 0.1 percentage point in the weeks following the rate rise, with the effect peaking at 0.3 percent four years later. With nearly 10 million households in Australia, each rate rise could potentially exclude up to 30,000 households from home ownership. While the research suggests that home ownership rates eventually recover, it could take more than a decade to fully bounce back.

Younger first-time buyers and those with lower incomes are disproportionately impacted by rate rises, as they are more likely to be locked out and miss out on the opportunity to own a home for many years. Policymakers may consider reviewing the current interest rate hiking cycle, stamp duties, and stamp duty systems to minimize the impact of rate rises on home ownership rates.