Denmark warns Russia could escalate hybrid attacks against NATO in coming months
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said Russia had become increasingly willing to take risks as the security situation in Europe deteriorates.
Denmark's military intelligence agency has cautioned that Russia could ramp up its hybrid attacks on NATO and Western nations in the upcoming months, with potentially more severe consequences. According to the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), Russia has demonstrated a growing willingness to take risks as the security situation in Europe deteriorates.
The DDIS predicts that Russia will heighten its hybrid warfare through more frequent targeted assaults, resulting in greater repercussions for affected countries compared to previous instances. These attacks could encompass destructive cyber operations affecting critical infrastructure, as well as sabotage with a significant risk of casualties.
The agency also warns of a low but increasing risk of a limited military strike against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, even during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The limited military attack could manifest as isolated drone or missile strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine, potentially with Russia falsely attributing the weapons to Ukrainian electronic warfare originating from NATO territory.
Furthermore, Russia might stage a false-flag attack utilizing Ukrainian-made drones or deploy a small number of troops, possibly without national insignia, into a NATO country adjacent to Russia, aiming to divert European resources away from Ukraine and test NATO members' collective response. The warning comes amid an uptick in suspected sabotage and hostile actions across Europe, including an attempted drone attack on Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport attributed to Russia and warnings from Denmark's domestic intelligence service of potential sabotage against Danish defense companies.
Additionally, the DDIS highlights increasingly aggressive interactions between Russian and NATO forces in the Baltic Sea region. On September 14, a Russian frigate off the Danish coast fired flares at a Danish military helicopter, described by the DDIS as the most serious incident involving Danish forces to date. The assessment indicates that Russia is currently facing greater pressure than at any other point in its war against Ukraine, citing heavy battlefield losses, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and mounting strain on the Russian economy.
However, the DDIS believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to back down from Moscow's core war objectives and may consider the next several years as a window of opportunity before European military capabilities significantly bolster. Despite the heightened risk of escalation, the DDIS does not believe Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion of a NATO country, which remains highly unlikely but not entirely ruled out.
The intelligence service estimates Russia would require at least six months to mobilize the forces for a potential invasion.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Independent's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
