Denmark expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare, says intelligence service

COPENHAGEN: Denmark's defence intelligence service predicts Russia will escalate its hybrid warfare against Western nations in the coming months, according to a new threat assessment released on Thursday. Hybrid warfare and sabotage operations on European soil have gained renewed prominence following Germany's accusation that Russia was behind an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, leading EU members to seek new sanctions against Russia.

Russia has consistently denied involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage in NATO countries, or any plans for confrontation.

The intelligence service warns that Russia will conduct more frequent attacks on the West and NATO, with potentially more severe consequences than before. It also suggests a low but increasing risk of a limited military attack against one or several NATO nations bordering Russia. Such an attack, if it occurs, could involve isolated strikes using long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations utilizing Ukrainian-made drones, according to the intelligence service chief, Thomas Ahrenkiel.

He added that Russia might also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, possibly under the guise of protecting Russian minorities. The purpose, according to Ahrenkiel, is to divide NATO, not to conquer countries.

Earlier this week, a Russian frigate fired two flares towards a Danish military helicopter during a photographing mission off the coast of Denmark. One flare narrowly missed the aircraft, according to the Danish military. The Danish Resilience Agency also reported on Thursday that Russia is likely to attempt destructive cyberattacks against Denmark, raising the nation's threat level.