Brazil expects record coffee crop in 2026

São Paulo — Brazil is on track to produce a record amount of coffee in 2026, with the country's statistics body, Conab, projecting a historic high. Conab estimates the harvest will reach 67.6 million bags of processed coffee, marking a 19.6% increase from the 2025 crop. This impressive production volume is already 99% harvested. Arabica coffee, accounting for roughly 70% of Brazil's national production, will play a significant role in this achievement.

The success of the 2026 crop can be attributed to two main factors: the expansion of the coffee-growing area and improved productivity. Coffee cultivation area is projected to grow by 5.1% this year, reaching 1.95 million hectares. This trend is common in high-production years, as production tends to alternate between years of higher and lower output due to a biennial cycle.

However, the overall yield is expected to increase as well, with coffee production on the same land area, thanks to a 13.8% boost in productivity. Conab predicts an average of 34.6 bags per hectare in 2026, up from 30.4 bags per hectare in 2025.

Enhanced crop performance is attributed to various factors, including optimal plant physiological conditions, the adoption of advanced technology by coffee growers, and more favorable weather conditions. Despite the record-breaking coffee production forecast, Brazil's coffee exports dipped slightly in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2025. Coffee exports in August, however, reached a record high, with 3.8 million 60-kilogram bags shipped, up 25.8% from July and 43.2% from August 2025.