Are AFL grand finals really the hardest game of the year? We checked the data

Every September, Australian Football League fans are told that the grand final is the toughest game of the year, but this claim has never been empirically examined. A recent analysis of historical match data challenges this notion, revealing that grand finals may not be the most physically demanding contests of the season. The study, conducted using the AFL's official statistics and data from AFL Tables, analyzed 5,111 games played between 2000 and 2025.

One of the most striking findings is that disposals, which include kicks and hand passes, decrease slightly in grand finals compared to regular games. Teams average 347.5 disposals in a final, compared to 361.5 in a regular game. Nearly all of this reduction comes from a drop in handballs, from 152.5 to 140.6. Kicks, on the other hand, remain relatively unchanged.

Another significant shift is the nature of ball possession. Uncontested possessions, where a player kicks or handballs in an open space, decline from 220.3 per game to 203.2 during finals, while contested possessions rise from 38.6% to 41.1%. This suggests that finals feature more physical confrontations as players vie for control of the ball.

Accuracy also takes a minor hit, with the efficiency of disposals falling from 72.4% to 70.8% during finals. Despite these changes, the grand final does not emerge as the most challenging match of the year. In fact, from 2000 to 2025, nine finals were played each September, and the qualifying finals, rather than the grand final, have consistently been the most physically contested.

The qualifying finals averaged 138.6 tackles, 291.4 contested possessions, and 43.0% of possessions contested, outpacing the grand final, which averaged 135.5 tackles, 279.1 contested possessions, and 40.9% of possessions contested. Qualifying finals are also the lowest-scoring games of the season, averaging 152.6 combined points.

When ranking finals by tackles, the grand final typically ranks around fifth. Over the past 14 seasons, it has never been the final with the most contested possessions. This trend raises the question of whether grand finals have always been the toughest matches or if this perception is more recent.

Interestingly, grand finals have not been the top contender for contested possessions in finals since 2011. In the past five years, the other finals have seen more tackles and contested possessions than the grand final, with the qualifying final alone remaining the toughest.

Despite their reputation for drama, grand finals are surprisingly one-sided, with an average margin of 38.4 points, larger than any other round of football. A third of grand finals have been decided by 50 points or more, a higher proportion than other finals and home-and-away games.

While the grand final is undoubtedly the most prestigious match of the year, this analysis suggests that it may not be the hardest. Instead, the increased physicality and intensity appear to build up over the course of September, culminating in a spectacle, but not necessarily the most physically demanding contest.