AI superpower ambitions take centre stage amid Trump-Xi high-stakes summit

In Washington, United States President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are meeting for a summit that focuses on diplomatic appearances rather than significant policy achievements. Both leaders seek to preserve tranquility between the world’s two largest economies, despite ongoing disputes over trade, Taiwan, and artificial intelligence. This visit marks Xi's first official trip to the United States in over a decade, with a warm welcome from Trump at Joint Base Andrews.

Tensions have been relatively stagnant since a trade war last year, allowing both nations ample time to tackle internal issues. Donald Trump returns from a weakened domestic situation, dealing with inflation, falling approval ratings, an unpopular war with Iran, and possibly challenging midterm elections. In contrast, Xi faces domestic challenges such as decelerated growth, a real estate crisis, and sluggish consumer spending.

However, experts observe that Xi benefits from a more robust international standing due to the erosion of American influence following alienating foreign policies.

The two leaders managed to extend a trade truce for an additional month through talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The agreement, which was finalized before the November expiration, did not lead to a major security pact on artificial intelligence, an area of intense competition. The US proposed exchanging safety alerts for national security incidents involving AI, but experts believe a decisive agreement is improbable during these meetings.

The issue of Taiwan remains a sensitive diplomatic matter, with Trump suggesting that a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan could be a negotiation tactic. China prefers the cessation of arms sales and opposition to independence, noting that a reduction in military exports has proven advantageous. This delicate situation has caused concern among key regional allies, including South Korea and Japan.

Donald Trump has signaled that a decision on potential new arms packages will be made swiftly, a move that has raised concerns among these allies.

Strategic leverage has shifted due to geopolitical conflicts and critical supply chains. The ongoing war with Iran has depleted US munitions and emphasized Washington's dependence on China for critical minerals and rare-earth materials. Orville Schell, director of the Asia Society Center on U.S. Relations, noted that Trump's approach has shifted from an aggressive stance to a more conciliatory one, highlighting China's control over key sectors in strategic fields.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly countered that the US military possesses sufficient munitions and stockpiles to accomplish all strategic objectives.

Public opinion in the United States is leaning toward diplomatic collaboration with Beijing, with recent polls indicating that more than half of Americans favor cooperation. However, lawmakers are divided on Chinese corporate investments and domestic automotive manufacturing. Business leaders from major companies are scheduled to attend the state dinner, but comprehensive investment agreements are still hindered by political uncertainty.

The current Washington encounter is anticipated to serve as a diplomatic placeholder, with additional meetings at global summits later in the year. Analysts view this summit primarily as a diplomatic opportunity rather than a catalyst for substantial policy changes.