AI boom could wipe 230 million budget phones a year from the market
Sub-$200 shipments forecast to shrink 40% by 2030 as component costs climb
A recent forecast from Counterpoint Research warns that the boom in AI datacenters could significantly reduce the number of budget smartphones sold annually. By 2030, shipments of sub-$200 devices are expected to fall by around 40 percent, eliminating over 230 million units from the market by the end of the decade. This contraction is attributed to rising memory and chipset costs, stricter minimum specifications, and manufacturers' reluctance to sustain unprofitable entry-level product lines.
The overall smartphone market is anticipated to recover close to its 2025 volume by 2030, but the low-cost segment will remain considerably smaller. Counterpoint principal analyst Yang Wang notes that the affordable segment will not return to its previous size. The shift will likely favor better-specced mainstream devices and premium products, as higher tiers cannot absorb all the lost volume.
This could make internet access less affordable for people in lower-income countries, as they may opt for more expensive devices, keep their existing phones longer, or purchase used and refurbished models. The mid-range is expected to become the industry's main battleground by 2030, with manufacturers focusing on better-equipped mass-market devices.
Companies like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are expected to benefit from the shift, as they offer better-equipped mass-market devices.
Written by urgent.news from The Register Science's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
