ADB lifts Vietnam's growth forecast to 7.8%, highest in Southeast Asia
The Asian Development Bank forecasts Vietnam's economy will grow 7.8% this year, highest in Southeast Asia, supported by foreign domestic consumption and direct investment inflows.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised Vietnam's growth forecast to 7.8% for the year, marking the highest among Southeast Asian nations. This projection indicates a significant improvement from the 7.5% growth observed in the same period of 2025, as reported by the ADB in a recent update. The strong performance across various sectors, including domestic consumer purchasing power and steady foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, has contributed to this growth surge.
The latest estimate reflects a notable increase of approximately 0.6 percentage points from the April projection. As of August, total registered FDI in Vietnam reached nearly US$40.6 billion, up more than 55% from the previous year, with newly registered capital amounting to about $22 billion, an impressive 97% increase. Retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue grew by over 13% year-over-year in the first eight months, which, excluding price factors, still showed a 7.6% growth rate, just 0.1 percentage point above the same period in 2025.
These figures underscore the pivotal role of investment in driving economic expansion, with public investment and capital from both FDI and private investors fueling major infrastructure projects. By mid-September, over VND513.3 trillion ($19.7 billion), or 50.2% of the annual plan, had been disbursed in public investment capital.
Major domestic corporations are increasingly contributing to urban and infrastructure development, with substantial funds anticipated from banks, potentially boosting the construction sector and short-term economic growth. However, the ADB cautions that relying heavily on bank borrowing could exacerbate liquidity, maturity-mismatch, and credit-concentration risks.
Sustainable growth will thus hinge on major infrastructure projects generating sufficient productivity and cash flow to manage related debt. Additionally, the economy confronts risks such as unstable global trade, geopolitical tensions, and rising energy costs through the year's end, which could impact exports, investment, and inflation.
Consequently, ADB projects Vietnam's inflation at 4.3% this year, with a slight easing to 4% in 2027. Economic growth for the subsequent year is estimated at around 7.6%. Recently, multiple international organizations, including UOB Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and Standard Chartered Bank, have increased their GDP growth forecasts for Vietnam, predicting growth rates of 8.5%, 7.5%, and 9.5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
In Southeast Asia, ADB projects Indonesia to experience second-highest growth at 5.2%, followed by Singapore at 5% and Malaysia at 4.9%.
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