A divided Nigerian opposition takes on Tinubu

In Nigeria's political landscape, unity among opposition parties has traditionally been key to challenging an incumbent like President Bola Tinubu. The top three contenders from the 2023 election—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi from the Labour Party, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso from the New Nigerian People's Party—formed the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Despite their combined efforts, the coalition dissolved due to disagreements over leadership. Abubakar emerged as the ADC presidential candidate, while Obi and Kwankwaso joined the National Democratic Congress (NDC) as presidential and vice-presidential candidates, respectively.

Abubakar chose Rotimi Amaechi, a former All Progressives Congress (APC) official, as his running mate. Tinubu retained Kashim Shettima as his vice president. Political analyst Ben Spiff notes that it will take an unforeseen factor to defeat the incumbent in the upcoming 2027 election. Tinubu's financial reforms, which included ending fuel subsidies and floating the naira exchange rate, have contributed to a cost-of-living crisis. Opposition parties are capitalizing on the economic hardships to criticize Tinubu's policies.

Abubakar aims to appeal to Muslim voters in the predominantly Muslim north by having Amaechi as his running mate, who is from the oil-rich Niger Delta. Tinubu, being a Muslim from the southwest, targeted the same demographic with his running mate's connections. Both parties are focusing on securing support from Nigeria's three largest ethnic groups—Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo—and various ethnic minority groups.

Abubakar seeks votes from the Hausas, while Obi targets the Igbo southeast and Kwankwaso's strong following in the northwest, particularly in Kano State.