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A powerful El Nino and the northeast monsoon are poised to shape the weather patterns in Tamil Nadu for the coming months. This climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has been closely monitored by meteorologists as it could influence rainfall and temperature patterns across India.

While El Nino is one of several factors affecting the monsoon, it is considered a key climate signal to watch this year. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have been well above average, and forecasts predict it could peak above +3.0 degrees Celsius in the coming months. Strong El Nino conditions could lead to a drier southwest monsoon, but it is believed to favor a wetter northeast monsoon in Tamil Nadu.

The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist until May or June 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest events in recent years. However, the severity of its impact depends on various factors, including other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. While meteorologists predict a wetter northeast monsoon this year, the final forecast will be released by the India Meteorological Department in September.

The Tamil Nadu government has formed an Expert Advisory Committee to monitor the situation and advise on preparedness and mitigation measures.