Washington Needs This LNG Deal More Than Beijing Does

Beijing has more at stake in a proposed U.S.-China LNG deal than Washington does, according to recent reports. After Iranian missiles destroyed a significant portion of Qatar's LNG export capacity, China filled the void by increasing its imports from various sources, excluding the United States. The United States' share of China's LNG imports plummeted to just 0.2% between January and July 2025.

The 15% tariff imposed on U.S. LNG shipments to China in February 2025 has resulted in zero recorded shipments since the beginning of 2025. Despite this, no contracts were canceled, and Chinese buyers continued to honor them, reselling the cargoes to other markets instead. Three major forecasters have reduced China's LNG demand outlook for the early 2030s by 14 to 22 million tons.

The proposed deal, which could lower tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of exports, is being discussed ahead of the September 24 summit between Washington and Beijing. However, China has been focusing on building supply relationships with Australia, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Canada, rather than the United States, as it shifts towards piped gas and renewables.