The Middle East Still to Come

The Middle East has long been a region of conflict, war, and shifting power dynamics. Despite its history of devastation and upheaval, the region has also witnessed moments of innovation, tolerance, and hope. In the 13th century, Ibn Arabi, a philosopher and Sufi mystic, traveled across the war-torn lands of the Middle East, promoting unity and valuing ideas over identity. His ideas of "The Absolute" and "Wahdat al-wujud" remain relevant today, emphasizing the potential for compassion and understanding.

In the modern era, wars have taken on new forms, with battles not only fought on traditional battlefields but also in digital and even intergalactic arenas. The rise of "iPhone-and-dagger societies" has led to a new era of military power, where technology can level the playing field for weaker parties against stronger ones. This has created an environment where even seemingly improbable alliances can form, such as the de facto alliance between Israel and the United Arab Emirates against Iran.

The past quarter century has seen the emergence of new great or median powers in the Middle East, willing to manipulate the legacy of European imperial powers and challenge superpowers. The United States, Russia, and China continue to intervene in the region, but their actions are inconsistent and often erratic. The region also grapples with a deep conflict between the open world led by America and the closed world led by China and Russia.

At the heart of the Middle East's contemporary challenges is the complex relationship between Islam and the West. Regional powers are increasingly ambitious and eager to dominate not just their own neighborhood but also lands beyond. Turkey, Iran, and Israel have become the region's preeminent military forces, while Saudi Arabia has taken the place of Egypt as leader of the Sunni world. However, paramilitary proxies like the Houthis can still hold regional powers at bay.

The luxury monarchies of the small Gulf states have also come to exercise influence and power far beyond the region, with their wealth and resources extending into Africa, South Asia, Europe, and even America. The expression "Middle East" has become increasingly inadequate to describe the region's diverse and evolving landscape, as new alignments and alliances form under the ever-present threat of conflict.

Iran's Islamic revolution of 1979, akin to the French and American revolutions, represents a significant turning point in world history, comparable to the Enlightenment and World War I.