The Makings of a Prewar World

Donald Trump's recent address to the United Nations General Assembly revealed his belief that "to the victor belongs the spoils," as he defended the American takeover of Venezuelan oil. He presented Iran with a stark choice, suggesting that if it did not accept his terms, it would "be driven into hell with no chance of survival."

This marked a significant shift in world politics, indicating that might is indeed making right. Trump is not the only leader contributing to this rupture from the post-World War II international order; Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have also broken the established system, albeit with their own unique approaches. While Trump's presidency may end in 2029, Putin and Xi may remain in power for decades to come.

The old international order, which historically prevented major powers from annexing territories and maintained a trading system based on reciprocity, has now collapsed. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has reignited the idea of expanding borders through force, leading to the deaths and injuries of an estimated 2 million people.

China's aggressive expansion in advanced manufacturing and its flooding of the global market with goods at extremely low prices have disrupted the global trading system. Meanwhile, under Trump's leadership, the United States has turned its focus inward, imposing high tariffs on allies and partners, and pushing for unilateral gain.

As the major powers build up their militaries and pursue new technologies like drone warfare and artificial intelligence, the international environment now resembles a prewar period. While a major conflict is not inevitable, the shift in power dynamics and the alignment of rival nations for mutual support suggest that future historians may find its causes clear and foreseen.