The influence of Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh

More than six months before the 2027 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, political parties are already strategizing to mobilize voters. The Congress party, addressing a rally at Ramlila Ground in Haldwani, is seeking to capitalize on the issue of Dalit voters, even though it acknowledges its limited presence in this community. The bigger question, however, is how much of the Dalit vote remains transferable and which party can attract it in substantial numbers to impact the election results.

Historically, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) dominated among Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2007 Assembly elections, 86% of Jatav Dalits and 54% of non-Jatav Dalits voted for the BSP. However, support for the BSP has waned over the years. In the 2022 elections, the support dropped to 65% among Jatavs and 27% among non-Jatav Dalits.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made inroads into this voter base, with its support increasing from just 3% in 2002 to 20% in 2022 among Jatavs, and from 12% in 2002 to 40% among non-Jatav Dalits. The shift has been more significant among non-Jatav Dalits, with the BJP/NDA vote share rising by 28 percentage points between 2002 and 2022, compared to a 17-point increase among Jatavs.

This trend is evident in the overall vote share of the parties. The BSP's vote share fell from 30.4% in 2007 to 12.8% in 2022, while the BJP/NDA's share increased from 18.5% to 43.8%. The Samajwadi Party (SP)/SP+ also expanded its base, increasing its vote share from 25.4% to 36.3%. The Congress's support among Dalit voters remains low, but the party is keen to regain any advantage it can, as seen in its efforts to capitalize on the recent incident at the Ramlila Ground.

The Congress's vote share among Dalit voters has always been minimal, even in the 2012 elections when it secured 16% of the non-Jatav Dalit vote. However, this advantage did not translate into a lasting impact. The data suggests that while the weakening of the BSP has not yet led to a significant recovery for the Congress, the BJP and SP have benefited from the shift in Dalit voter preferences.

The Congress, in particular, has struggled to emerge as a significant beneficiary of the BSP's decline. As the 2027 Assembly elections approach, the outcome will reveal which party successfully mobilizes Dalit voters, but the data already indicate that the Dalit vote remains crucial but is not firmly tied to a single party.