Storbank før rentethriller: «Hårfin avgjørelse»

Bank of America anticipates the Norwegian central bank will maintain its current interest rate of 4.25 percent during its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The bank noted that the underlying price pressure in August remained lower than what the central bank had anticipated. Bank of America expressed concern that the updated interest rate trend would continue to exert pressure towards rate hikes, reflecting the bank's ongoing concern over inflation.

The economic consensus among E24's monetary experts varies on the central bank's decision. Norway's inflation rate slowed somewhat in the summer months, with underlying inflation (KPI-JAE) at 3.4 percent in May and 2.7 percent in June and July. Additionally, the Norwegian krone has strengthened recently, which according to Bank of America, should help the Norges Bank monetary committee keep rates steady.

Bank of America also pointed out that the latest report from Norges Bank's regional network suggests the economic situation does not necessitate further tightening at the moment. They noted that factors such as capacity utilization and reported constraints in access to labor and raw materials, along with wage growth in the third quarter, falling behind other quarters, signal this.

Bank of America's initial assumption is that the central bank's policy rate will remain steady for some time at 4.25 percent, but they caution this outlook is less certain than previously. They pointed out that inflation is highly volatile and future developments depend on factors such as energy prices. Meanwhile, other central banks are also tightening monetary policy, which could increase the risk of an underperforming krone if Norges Bank does not keep pace.

Bank of America sees a possibility that the bank might raise rates by 0.25 percentage points later in the year, most likely in December. This move would align with what the market is pricing in, according to Bank of America. Sweden's central bank also announces its rate decision on Thursday. Bank of America expects a rate hike from the Riksbank to 2 percent in December.