Small Caps: US-Nebenwerte feiern Comeback: Das sind die Gründe und die Aussichten

US small-cap stocks have overtaken large corporations on the US stock market, with the Russell 2000 index, comprising the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index, showing a 15% gain this year. In contrast, the S&P 500, which includes the 500 largest companies, is up 13%. This marks the first time since the 10-year period that the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500, with the S&P 500's annualized return averaging 13.5% versus 10.6% for the Russell 2000.

Market observers cite several reasons for this "comeback of the small caps." Large companies have been responsible for most of the market's returns over several years, but investors are increasingly seeking alternative sources of return. The outperformance of small caps has been driven by broader market participation. Experts like Sven Weddermann from Vanguard and Peter Kraus from Berenberg Bank note that the small caps have been due for an outperformance, as their returns have lagged for too long.

Companies from the finance, industrial, and biotech sectors have driven the surge. The Russell 2000's strength is attributed to a robust economic recovery, benefiting more domestic-oriented small caps than those listed in the S&P 500, which generate around 60% of their revenues in the US compared to 80% for the S&P 500. However, the success of small caps depends on the US economic growth in the coming months.

The biggest risk is weak economic growth, as small caps are more specialized and sensitive to economic developments. They are also often more leveraged, making them more susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. A "Goldilocks scenario" of solid growth, low inflation, stable interest rates, and a strong labor market could benefit small caps more than large tech stocks.

Deloitte's current projection suggests a slight cooling of the US economy, with growth expected to slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027. Despite this, small-cap stocks could still be an attractive addition to portfolios of investors focused on the US market but with a broader sector allocation. While technology stocks make up more than 35% of the S&P 500, they account for only around 11% of the Russell 2000.

The semiconductor sector, for example, has seen a significant correction, which the Russell 2000 has benefited from relative to the S&P 500. Investors can access US small-caps through ETFs, such as the Invesco Russell 2000 UCITS ETF (0.25% expense ratio) and the Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS ETF (0.30% expense ratio). There are also actively managed funds, such as Vanguard's newly launched small-cap ETF (0.05% expense ratio).