‘Setting the Stage’: Russia May be Preparing to ‘Annex South Ossetia’

A senior analyst from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests Russia is preparing to annex Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, driven by uncertainty surrounding its military base in Armenia. Paul Goble, a former CIA analyst and Russia specialist, made this claim after Moscow-backed authorities conducted a presidential election in South Ossetia.

The European Union declared the September 18 vote invalid, stating that Russia's actions towards integrating the territory could lead to illegal annexation. Goble asserts that the fate of Russia's 102nd Military Base in Gyumri has become a central element in Moscow's strategy. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently indicated that Armenia no longer requires the Russian base, although Yerevan has not formally requested its withdrawal.

This development comes as Armenia reevaluates its reliance on Russian security assurances. Goble contends that Russia initially preferred to control South Ossetia without formally annexing it, partly due to the potential complications annexation may pose for future relations with Georgia. However, he argues that Russia's uncertainty about the base in Gyumri has heightened the strategic importance of South Ossetia.

Goble explains that Moscow's utilization of Russian passports and elections in disputed or occupied territories is part of a broader tactic to assess how far the international community will allow changes to established borders. He views these actions as a means for Russia to gauge its boundaries. Russia formally recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states following the 2008 war with Georgia, while the vast majority of the global community still considers both entities to be part of Georgia.