Sara Duterte impeachment: Why the Senate is fighting over the 16-vote threshold

Sara Duterte, the impeached vice-president of the Philippines, finds herself in an escalating conflict with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as her allies push to invalidate crucial votes in her Senate trial. The 24-member Senate is deliberating whether to count the votes of several absent senators. Two aligned senators, Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada, have been arrested for corruption, while Ronald dela Rosa has gone into hiding to avoid an arrest warrant.

Senator Loren Legarda is on extended medical leave amid an investigation into energy contracts. All have denied the allegations against them. The trial, which has dragged on for 10 weeks, could extend until December. Duterte faces charges of threatening to kill Marcos and his wife, misusing public funds, and accumulating unexplained wealth.

The Senate judges are set to hear arguments on whether the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds vote to convict applies to all members or just those present. If the threshold is lowered, Duterte's chances of being convicted increase. Marcos' government is reportedly employing aggressive tactics to ensure a conviction, a move seen as part of an "existential battle" with Duterte.

This power struggle coincides with the impending 2028 presidential election, where Duterte is seen as a front-runner. Marcos cannot run due to term limits, but his supporters fear Duterte could wield state power against them. The trial has also highlighted ongoing legal troubles for several other Duterte-aligned senators. Prosecutors have highlighted Duterte's alleged threats against Marcos, her aides' large cash withdrawals, and her use of fictitious names to receive funds.

Her defense team has countered these claims, alleging harassment and the lack of irregularities in fund usage, and has threatened to appeal the Senate's vote-eligibility ruling if necessary.