S&P Global PMIs expected to show resilient US economic growth in September

On Wednesday, S&P Global will release its preliminary September Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for the United States, providing early insight into economic momentum. These reports, released ahead of official figures, examine various economic factors such as production, export patterns, capacity utilization, employment, and inventory levels.

The Composite PMI, a weighted average of the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, is expected to indicate growth when the numbers exceed 50. Investors are anticipating a slight decline in the Manufacturing PMI from 53.9 to 53.5 and a minor decrease in the Services PMI from 56.5 to 56. However, these minor adjustments suggest that business activity in the US remains robust, reinforcing the notion of exceptional economic performance.

A significant positive surprise in either PMI could strengthen the US Dollar, bolstering the Federal Reserve's cautious (hawkish) stance. The S&P Global PMIs report will be published at 13:45 GMT on Wednesday, and market analysts warn that EUR/USD may face further losses following its recent break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1620.

If the pair manages to regain support, the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542 could act as the initial resistance levels before targeting the August high of 1.1711. Conversely, selling pressure might find initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1353 (July 28), followed by the June 2026 low of 1.1324. Momentum indicators suggest that additional declines are probable, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) nears 29, indicating a strong trend.