Russian claims of encircling Dobropillya are entirely fabricated — ISW

On September 22, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that the Russian Defense Ministry's claim of encircling Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast had no basis in fact. The Russian military made the announcement without providing any supporting evidence, according to ISW analysts. The Kremlin's cognitive warfare campaign involved making false claims of encirclements to give the impression that Ukrainian defenses were buckling.

The Russian Defense Ministry's statement on September 22 claimed that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces had encircled Dobropillya and were moving towards Oleksandrivka, located northwest of the city. However, these claims lacked any maps or evidence to support them. ISW observed that there was no proof to back up the Russian encirclement allegations.

Moreover, these claims ran counter to recent statements from Ukrainian sources. A Ukrainian artillery reconnaissance battalion chief stated on September 22 that Russian forces had not made significant advances near Dobropillya. He further noted that the Russian military command often delayed its plans due to heavy losses in personnel and discrepancies between its strategies and actual battlefield conditions.

Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, said on September 20 that Ukrainian forces held positions both south and northeast of Dobropillya. ISW had previously reported on September 17 that Russian forces were moving armor and drone support assets to the Dobropillya area in preparation for a potential mechanized assault in Fall 2026.

The 1st Corps Azov National Guard of Ukraine, led by Commander Denys Prokopenko, mentioned that around 1,200 Russian drone crews from the elite Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Systems were positioned near Dobropillya. This indicated that the Russians probably intended to utilize drones to support their assault maneuvers.