Por que o Fleury sobe 50% este ano? O BTG tem uma hipótese

The Fleury stock has surged nearly 50% this year, outpacing the Ibovespa index and its peers in the healthcare sector. This sharp rise has left many investors wondering what is driving the market's favoritism towards the company. The brokerage firm BTG Pactual examined the situation and identified two main factors contributing to the valuation increase: a broader expansion of multiples, where investors are willing to pay more for the company or its industry, and a global movement of re-rating healthcare diagnostic companies.

Initially, at the beginning of the second quarter, some investors attributed the Fleury's rise to a defensive move, seeking safety amidst a deteriorating macro environment. The company's low leverage, resilient demand, and exposure to a relatively low-beta segment made sense at the time. However, once the market shifted to a "risk-on" stance in mid-August, the Fleury regained its position above the market. This brings us back to the original question: what is truly behind the exceptional performance of the Fleury's stock?

Healthcare is a regional business due to its regulation and local consolidation dynamics, which means regional competitive conditions and geographical fundamentals typically weigh more than global trends. Despite this, the analysis revealed that global diagnostic peers of Fleury experienced significant multiple expansions and strong stock performance this year, consistent with solid operational results for the year.

The report also noted a growing structural narrative of higher growth in diagnostic companies, with preventive medicine emerging as a structural pillar for the future of healthcare. This could explain why precision diagnostics and oncology-focused peers are among the fastest-growing globally.

BTG Pactual categorized the global peers of Fleury into three groups: traditional and large-scale laboratories; precision diagnostics, oncology, and niche high-growth companies; and Asian diagnostic laboratories operating in markets with still-low penetration. The Fleury company seems to align more with the first group, which, while not growing as rapidly as the latter two, also benefited from a significant multiple expansion.

Traditional and large-scale laboratories, including names like Quest Diagnostics, Labcorp Holdings, and Eurofins, currently trade at 16x-21x projected earnings for the next twelve months, with the median of these peers trading 35% above the Fleury valuation, which trades at 14x earnings. Historically, the premium for the Fleury has been 35%, remaining unchanged as both global peers and the Fleury itself have benefited from multiple expansion.

Despite this shift in dynamics, BTG Pactual believes that local fundamentals could regain more prominence in the future. The bank also believes that this re-rating does not mean the Fleury is transitioning into a high-growth asset. CEO Jeane Tsutsui delivered a healthy, single-digit organic growth, which is "well-consistent with private health market growth in Brazil."

The Fleury company is unlikely to consistently outgrow the market, as it is not aggressively investing in capacity expansion. The brokerage maintained its 'neutral' recommendation for the stock and reiterated its preference for the Rede D'Or in the healthcare sector. "With both companies trading at similar multiples, we view the current valuation relative to Rede D'Or as an attractive entry point," the analyst wrote.

"The global factors sustaining diagnostic valuations may not persist indefinitely, and we do not see a structural reason for the Fleury to be traded at a premium compared to Rede D'Or, especially given Rede D'Or's superior growth profile, larger investment pipeline, and stronger market share potential."

The Fleury stock is currently valued at R$12 billion on the stock exchange. The share has risen 38% over the past twelve months and 48% so far this year.