Oil at $100 a barrel as focus remains on Iran peace talks and Saudi supply recovery

Oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel on Wednesday as talks between Iran and the US aim to resolve the conflict and Saudi Arabia's oil supply recovers. Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, climbed 1.11% to $100.3 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge for US crude, rose 0.33% to $90.82 a barrel. Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said a credible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, along with Saudi export recovery, could push Brent towards the low $90s, as markets price a more normal supply environment.

However, she expects the downside to become progressively harder unless physical flows improve substantially from the Strait of Hormuz and the East-West pipeline. The pipeline, which carries around 7 million barrels of oil per day, saw operations resume at a lower rate on Tuesday after damage from drone attacks. Salih Yilmaz, senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the restart of the pipeline and improved flows through Hormuz reduce the immediate risk of a severe supply squeeze.

If these trends continue, Brent could remain below $100 and move lower. The US and Iran talks in New York are a focus, with US President Donald Trump describing the discussions as productive. However, if negotiations fail or another round of attacks damages Saudi infrastructure or Gulf exports, oil prices could surge again. Hathorn warned that if negotiations break down or if the conflict between Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia escalates, prices could rebound quickly due to thin market buffers and potential supply disruptions.