Middle East airlines will need 3,830 new jets by 2045, Airbus says

Middle East airlines will require 3,830 additional passenger aircraft between now and 2045, according to Airbus. The aircraft manufacturer forecasts demand for 2,160 single-aisle planes and 1,670 wide-body jets during this period. Passenger traffic is expected to grow by an average of 4.7 percent annually, more than doubling from current levels.

This projection is based on Airbus's Global Market Forecast, rather than confirmed aircraft orders. Existing Middle East backlogs for large single-aisle aircraft account for 45 percent of the region's projected demand over the next 20 years. Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East, notes that the Middle East is a highly dynamic aviation market with regional carriers displaying operational resilience despite geopolitical uncertainties.

The forecast attributes this growth to demographic expansion, rising prosperity, and major infrastructure investments, leading airlines to expand and modernize their fleets while transitioning towards more efficient and sustainable air travel. In the UAE, Airbus predicts that air trips per person will increase from 3.1 in 2025 to 6.5 in 2045.

For Saudi Arabia, the increase is expected from 1.6 to 4.0 trips per person over the same period. Fleet renewal is also a key aspect of the outlook, with Airbus forecasting that new-generation aircraft will make up 97 percent of the Middle East fleet by 2035, compared to just 45 percent in 2025. The company expects newer aircraft to improve fuel efficiency, operating performance, and reduce emissions.

Airbus also anticipates an increase in investment in sustainable aviation fuel production across the region, although it does not specify the exact amount or timing of these projects.