Map Shows House Districts Most Likely to Flip as Fox News Shifts 15 Races
Democrats gained ground in the battle to control the House of Representatives in new ratings from Fox News.
Fox News has revised its House race analysis, shifting 15 races away from Republicans as Democrats aim to flip more conservative districts in the upcoming midterm elections. President Donald Trump's approval rating is on a downward trajectory, providing Democrats with optimism for expanding their majority in the House. Currently, Republicans hold 218 seats, while Democrats have 214 seats, making only a few pickups necessary to secure a majority.
The latest update from Fox News Power Rankings has added five races to the toss-up category, six to the Lean R category, three to the Lean D category, and one to the Likely D category. This development signals a warning for Republicans, given the approaching midterms six weeks away.
Florida's 14th and 22nd Districts, as well as Iowa's 2nd District, Maine's 2nd District, and Michigan's 4th District, have shifted to toss-up categories. Democrats are favored in 215 races, while Republicans have an advantage in 201 seats, with an additional 19 races serving as toss-ups. Fox News has fewer toss-up races than other forecasters like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which had four races classified as toss-ups as of Tuesday.
Both forecasters shifted three races toward Democrats, including Florida's 27th District, Iowa's 1st District, and Texas' 9th District.
Recent polls show Democrats outperforming Republicans as Election Day nears, with some surveys indicating significant advantages. Among likely voters, a YouGov and The Economist poll found Republicans trailing Democrats by 14 points, while an Ipsos and Reuters survey showed Democrats leading by 8 points. Despite these polls, Nate Silver noted that Republican approval ratings are deteriorating rapidly, largely due to high gas prices and potential negative sentiment around artificial intelligence.
Democrats have a high confidence of retaking control of the House of Representatives, with prediction markets showing a 91% chance for Democrats on Kalshi and a 93% chance on Polymarket.
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