It's hard to predict who will be suicidal: It's easier to ensure people can't shoot themselves

Dr. Paul Nestadt, a leading expert in suicide prevention, acknowledges the difficulty in predicting which of his patients will take their own lives within six months. Despite research showing that predictions of suicidal tendencies are only slightly better than chance, Nestadt remains committed to finding effective interventions.

Rather than trying to identify and isolate individuals at risk, he advocates for measures that make suicide less likely, such as restricting access to lethal means. While this approach may be challenging due to legal and political complexities surrounding firearms, Nestadt maintains that limiting access to guns could save the most lives.

In the U.S., gun suicides account for over half of all suicide deaths, with rates among middle-aged white men and veterans remaining high. However, gun suicides have also risen among women and some Black and Latino men in recent years. Research indicates that creating barriers to suicide methods, such as guns, pills, or bridges, does not push people towards alternative methods.

Even a brief delay in acting on suicidal thoughts can provide an opportunity for intervention. Despite the political sensitivity surrounding gun-related policies, research suggests that restricting access to lethal means, particularly guns, could significantly reduce suicide rates. One promising approach is extreme risk protection orders, also known as red flag laws, which allow judges to temporarily remove guns from individuals deemed a danger to themselves or others.

These laws have been adopted in 22 states and have shown effectiveness in preventing suicide. However, their implementation requires identifying at-risk individuals, which may not always be feasible, especially among those who do not seek help.