Interior Ministry unveils two-tier plan for possible El Niño scenarios

The Ministry of Interior and National Administration in Kenya has implemented a two-tier preparedness strategy to address two potential El Niño scenarios. This approach enables national and county governments to plan their responses based on the severity of the weather conditions. On September 23, 2026, the ministry announced this two-tiered plan, outlining two possible El Niño outcomes: a weak, low-impact scenario and a strong, high-impact scenario.

In the weak scenario, the government anticipates above-average rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in specific areas, potentially affecting up to 250,000 people. The impacts of this scenario are projected to be primarily temporary and localized, with some displacement and limited damage to housing, livelihoods, and community infrastructure. The Interior Ministry has provided counties with the necessary capacity to address the lower-impact situation, capable of supporting up to 250,000 affected individuals.

However, the government has also prepared for a more severe scenario that could result in widespread flooding and necessitate national intervention. Under the strong scenario, the ministry predicts significant flooding across substantial portions of the country, leading to extensive displacement, infrastructure damage, and livelihood losses that may surpass the response capacity of individual counties.

The government estimates that the strong scenario could impact up to one million people, with up to 500,000 people potentially displaced.

To address such a widespread event, national contingency arrangements have been established by the government. These arrangements are designed to facilitate a larger-scale response, capable of supporting up to one million people if the conditions escalate. The two-tiered approach enables both national and county governments to plan resources effectively and coordinate their response according to the eventual severity of the weather conditions.

The planning scenarios were developed by the Ministry of Interior and National Administration in collaboration with the Kenya Meteorological Department.