How Premier League teams have really started - according to xG

Premier League teams have started their seasons with varying levels of dominance, as revealed by expected goals (xG) statistics. Liverpool, who led with five wins out of five, and Tottenham, positioned third, serve as examples of how early starts do not necessarily reflect final standings. xG provides a more precise picture of a team's performance before points are awarded, focusing on shot quality and quantity, without considering penalties, refereeing decisions, or luck.

Historical data suggests that teams dominating games perform better overall. Arsenal, despite suffering their biggest defeat in three years to Brighton, remains the best team overall based on xG difference. Manchester City closely follows, while unbeaten Brentford's impressive start seems genuine, while Manchester United's inconsistent form defies expectations. Only three teams have a higher xG difference than Manchester United.

Teams like Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have outperformed their early positions, while Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle have underperformed relative to their standings. Aston Villa's surprising exit from the relegation zone after a poor start, and Newcastle's success despite a low xG, highlight the potential for improvement. Brighton, the best attacking team so far with the highest xG, have also scored the most non-penalty goals, while Newcastle, with the lowest xG, rely heavily on sharp finishing.

Defensively, Brighton has conceded the fewest goals, making them the least vulnerable side. However, teams like Crystal Palace and Fulham have been too easy to break into defensively. In contrast, Everton and Leeds have been strong defensively, conceding fewer goals than expected. The new season's results are still unclear, but underlying xG numbers offer a preview of what to expect.