Heat waves on land start earlier and develop faster, global analysis reveals
Heat waves over land worldwide are beginning earlier, ending later and occurring over longer seasons, while the first heat wave of the season has recently shifted toward faster onset, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
A new study published in Nature Climate Change reveals that heat waves on land are starting earlier, lasting longer, and occurring in extended seasons due to global warming. Researchers from the South China Botanical Garden analyzed climate data from 1979 to 2023, finding that the first heat wave of each season has been advancing by about two weeks, the last heat wave has been occurring about 24 days later in the year, and the overall heat wave season has lengthened by about 39 days per decade.
Across global land areas, 72% of regions showed an earlier onset of heat waves, 79.6% exhibited later end dates, and 92.1% experienced longer heat wave seasons, with the greatest changes observed in drylands. The study also found that the proportion of rapid-onset heat waves increased significantly from 2001 to 2023, indicating a shift towards faster heat wave development.
Longer heat wave seasons are exposing crops to extreme heat for more stages of development, with crop exposure increasing by 1.6% to 13.3% for several major crops compared to 1979-2000. The researchers emphasize that heat wave risks depend not only on the intensity and duration of heat waves but also on their timing and speed of development.
This new understanding of heat wave timing and development could help improve monitoring and early-warning systems, as well as inform adaptation strategies for public health, agriculture, ecosystem management, and energy supply.
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