El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths, estimates say

The current El Nino weather pattern, which began in June, is projected to cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February. According to the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, developing countries will be disproportionately affected during the June to February period. The Sahel region of Africa could see an additional 66,800 heat-related deaths, with nearly half of those in Nigeria alone.

Indonesia and the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia are also expected to experience 19,300 and 19,400 heat deaths, respectively, with India and Brazil projected to have 15,800 and 13,300 extra heat-related fatalities.

The researchers predict that global land temperatures will be 1.2C above normal in the coming months due primarily to the El Nino phenomenon. This temperature spike is expected to result in 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year. The Climate Impact Lab utilized research on the connection between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, incorporating both local climate factors and vulnerability levels into their calculations.

They then combined these findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate the additional heat-related deaths attributed to El Nino, comparing them to the 1996-2025 average. Their methodology will be published in an upcoming peer-reviewed journal.

The report was released just after the United Nations warned that El Nino poses a significant threat to global health. The Climate Impact Lab researchers believe their projections can assist governments and humanitarian organizations in implementing preventive measures, such as heat warnings, cooling centers, and hydration stations.

Co-founder Michael Greenstone emphasized that "this report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months."