Can Zambia make the most of the copper boom?
Mineral resources including copper are the defining economic question of Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema's second term.
The morning sun casts its rays brightly as Bliss Mutale concludes his overnight shift at Mopani Copper Mines in Zambia's Copperbelt. Mutale, once reliant on selling liquor to make ends meet, now finds himself employed again under new Emirati ownership. With copper prices soaring to over $15,000 per tonne in mid-September, the mining industry has the potential to boost Zambia's economy.
Global demand for copper is projected to surge from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million by 2040, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and other transition technologies. This could significantly benefit Zambia, where mining accounts for 15% of national income and 65% of exports. President Hakainde Hichilema, sworn in for a second term on September 1st, aims to increase copper production to 3 million tonnes by 2031, but this seems an ambitious goal. Current production is just under 900,000 tonnes, up from 800,000 tonnes in 2021.
The government projects that production could reach 1.5 million tonnes by 2031, but this would require discovering new copper reserves, as the timeline for turning discovered copper into production is optimistic. Foreign investment, particularly from Chinese and Emirati sources, is flowing into Zambia's mining sector, with projects like KoBold Metals' Mingomba mine and First Quantum Minerals' Kansanshi and Lumwana mines.
Yet, there are challenges. Explorations were neglected for decades, leading to a lack of knowledge about Zambia's remaining copper deposits. Additionally, electricity shortages hamper mining operations, as most power used by mines is imported from neighboring countries. The Zambian government is implementing reforms to attract more investment, including changes to mineral royalties and local content rules that require mining companies to allocate a significant portion of their procurement to local providers.
However, the success of these measures will depend on fostering genuine Zambian businesses rather than front companies for foreign suppliers.
Written by urgent.news from Africa Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
