Analysis-Wheat buyers brace for higher costs as Russia-Ukraine war drags on

Global wheat buyers awaiting replenishment of dwindling stocks face significantly higher costs upon market re-entry, as the Russia-Ukraine war persists and shows no signs of abating. World prices have surged, with benchmark Chicago futures rising 40% from June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high, and physical prices from alternative exporters surging, threatening food inflation for vulnerable consumers.

Most global importers have delayed alternative purchases, hoping for a Russia-Ukraine agreement on grain shipments. However, local supplies are running thin, particularly in Asia, where import-dependent regions are grappling with the constraints. The Black Sea, crucial for grain shipping, is experiencing near standstill cargo movements due to attacks on vessels and ports, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources.

While some Middle Eastern and African importers are already exploring alternatives, many still have supplies lasting until November or year-end. Russian wheat exports are projected to decline to around 1 million tons in September, while Ukraine will ship only about 1 million tons this month, compared to last year's levels. Asia is set to bear the brunt of the shortage, with Indonesian millers turning to other suppliers, paying 20% to 25% more for Australian wheat than previously paid for Black Sea cargoes.

Prices for Black Sea wheat have increased by around 25% compared to pre-crisis levels, with top global buyers like Egypt receiving less than a tenth of the volume they received from Russia and Ukraine in the September-to-October period last year. Despite the challenges, importers remain hopeful for a resolution to the conflict, as the harvests in the Middle East and North Africa have arrived, providing a temporary respite.