After Prabowo and Jokowi Part Ways

Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo, both Indonesian political figures, may part ways in the 2029 General Election, opening up new possibilities for the election's outcome. This separation could prove unhealthy for both democracy and healthy politics. An alternative candidate with a commendable track record is necessary to counterbalance Prabowo and Jokowi's combined presence.

In an interview with Tempo, Jokowi expressed that he would have no issue if Prabowo were to abandon him in the 2029 presidential race. If this were to happen, Jokowi is expected to back his eldest son, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate. Gibran's ascent to the vice-presidential position came after the Constitutional Court, led by his uncle Anwar Usman, lowered the minimum age requirement from 35 to 40 years old.

Under Prabowo's leadership, his electability and approval rating have plummeted, with surveys indicating that his support is now below 50 percent and below 30 percent, respectively. Despite this, Prabowo remains a formidable opponent. Some of his claims about his policies have turned out to be false, further diminishing his prospects of winning the upcoming election. Consequently, he may resort to imitating Jokowi by attempting to pressure political opponents using law enforcement agencies to manipulate voter preferences.

Dedi Mulyadi, the Governor of West Java, presents a significant challenge to Prabowo and Gibran. He has garnered twice the support of Prabowo, with his popularity rising due to his image as a "content governor." Dedi's success stems from his ability to leverage instant popularity on social media, earning him the nickname "new Jokowi."

While other politicians have the opportunity to challenge Prabowo, the Constitutional Court recently struck down the presidential threshold, allowing smaller parties without seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) to nominate credible candidates. To remain compliant with the court's ruling, politicians have informally agreed to increase the parliamentary threshold from 4 to 5 percent.

Failure to meet this threshold results in the party losing its seat in the DPR, prompting them to potentially create a presidential threshold that would enable major party leaders to become presidential candidates. If this happens, the 2029 political landscape will revert to a single presidential candidate scenario, with Prabowo potentially winning without an alternative candidate capable of countering his influence.