$100 Brent Keeping China's Oil Buying in Check, Goldman Says
China's crude oil exports will rise only slightly in the fourth quarter from the third quarter if oil prices remain high, potentially easing the upward pressure on benchmark crude prices, Goldman Sachs says. China's crude oil imports rose for the second consecutive month in August as refiners turned to additional non-Middle Eastern supply and boosted overseas fuel shipments amid eased export…
Goldman Sachs predicts that China's crude oil imports will rise only slightly in the fourth quarter if oil prices stay high, potentially dampening the upward pressure on benchmark crude prices. In August, China's crude oil imports increased for the second straight month, with refiners turning to alternative sources and boosting overseas fuel shipments due to eased export restrictions.
China imported 8.93 million bpd of crude oil in August, up 6.2% from July and recovering from a decade-low in June. When fuel export restrictions were lifted, Chinese refiners returned to buying crude, raising concerns among the market that a major rebound in imports could trigger another rise in oil prices. Goldman Sachs expects China's crude oil imports to increase by only about 600,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
The bank's analyst believes that the likelihood of China significantly raising imports, despite high prices, is low, as the main upside risk to their crude price forecast is strikes on Middle East crude production and export infrastructure.
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