Three shocks are resetting coal’s winter ceiling
Key takeaways • Gas is pricing coal back into the merit order across the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific basins at once, with both European and Asian gas now trading above coal on a delivered basis. • A mine safety crackdown in China has pulled coking coal output down sharply after fatal accidents in Shanxi and Hunan, ...
Three key developments are reshaping coal markets heading into winter, acting as a trio of shocks to the industry. First, the gas market is putting coal back into the merit order, with European and Asian gas prices now trading above coal on a delivered basis. This mechanism is at play in both European and Asian basins. Second, a safety crackdown in China has slashed coking coal output, leading to a sharp rise in Australian premium low-vol coking coal prices, now over $280/t.
Finally, the Black Sea route, accounting for 13% of Russia's seaborne coal exports in 2025, has been rendered impassable due to naval attacks, forcing exporters to reroute through costlier Baltic ports. These three factors are jointly driving significant changes in coal markets. Winter benchmark prices in Europe are already reflecting much of the expected upside, and traders are debating how much further prices can rise.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.