The Past Decade’s Emissions Are Already Driving Worse Heat Waves in Europe
Carbon released since the 2015 Paris Agreement is already having an impact.
Heatwaves in Europe have intensified measurably due to greenhouse gas emissions since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, according to a new study in Geophysical Research Letters. Researchers from Stanford University found that emissions released since the Paris Agreement significantly increased the intensity of individual heatwaves in Europe.
Lead author Jared Trok noted that this holds true for the hottest week of every year since at least 2021. The study comes as Europe experiences back-to-back heatwaves this summer, breaking records and causing over 35,000 excess deaths. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, but current policies are expected to surpass this target, with temperatures projected to peak at 1.8°C.
Europe is particularly vulnerable to climate change, heating up at more than twice the global average rate. The study used AI to show that the emissions from the last decade increased the intensity of 2025 heatwaves by about a third of a degree Celsius. Even small increments in temperature can have significant impacts on the damage caused by heatwaves.
The researchers warn that the emissions already released will continue to intensify extreme weather regardless of future mitigation efforts.
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